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This page was translated from the German original, partly by machine. Some passages may read awkwardly or contain inaccuracies. When in doubt, please read the original.

Confirmation Bias

In short

You prefer information that confirms your beliefs.

You only hear what you want to hear.

Definition​

The confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs.

DE: Bestätigungsfehler

The confirmation bias is closely related to the filter bubble (also called the "echo chamber")! They reinforce each other.

The filter bubble is the technical/social environment — e.g. YouTube, TikTok, or any other social network with filtering algorithms — that delivers only information we like, that confirms us and does not contradict us.

To the climate-change denier, the algorithm keeps presenting new articles or videos showing that climate change is an invention. The climate activist is shown content that confirms their worldview. So everyone is satisfied.

Examples​

The Anti-Vaxxer​

A person who believes that vaccinations are dangerous in general deliberately searches for reports about vaccine side effects and systematically ignores all studies on vaccine safety.

She becomes an expert on the one negative vaccine study from the '90s that was long ago refuted, but cannot cite a single one of the thousands of positive studies. Facebook posts from "concerned mothers" carry more weight for her than the entire scientific community.

The Sports Fan​

A football fan remembers crystal-clearly every controversial referee decision against their team over the last five years, but the three obvious wrong decisions in their favor? Never happened! He doesn't see them.

He develops detailed conspiracy theories about corrupt referees and meticulously keeps statistics — but only about the injustice toward his own club.

His selective memory works like Swiss clockwork, only backwards and with blinkers on.

The Politician​

A politician interprets ambiguous economic data so that it fits their political agenda perfectly. As if the numbers had been written especially for them.

He quotes only the first half of studies and stops reading as soon as the data become inconvenient.

Effects​

  • Reinforcement of existing beliefs, even when they are false
  • Polarization of opinions and hardening of conflicts
  • Resistance to evidence that contradicts one's own beliefs

Counter-Strategies​

  • Actively search for information that contradicts your own beliefs
  • Apply the "steelman" method1: formulate opposing arguments as strongly as possible
  • Ask others for critical feedback
  • Formulate hypotheses that could disprove your own beliefs

Sources​

Wikipedia: Confirmation bias

Footnotes​

  1. The steelman method is a technique in which you formulate your opponent's arguments as strongly and convincingly as possible before refuting them. It is the opposite of the straw man argument. ↩